With the 2027 presidential election still two years away, Nigeria’s political landscape is already heating up. As President Bola Tinubu positions himself for a second term, tensions are brewing in the North while he aggressively courts the South-East and South-South—regions where he performed poorly in 2023.
North-South Divide Widens Over Tinubu’s Re-Election Plans
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) appears to have closed ranks behind Tinubu. Party chairman Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje recently declared that the North would back Tinubu in 2027 and reclaim the presidency in 2031, in line with Nigeria’s informal power rotation agreement. This stance was reinforced by Minister of State for Defence, Dr. Bello Matawalle, who insisted the North would support Tinubu to continue his policies.
However, not all Northern leaders are on board. Critics argue that the North should not be bound by a pre-arranged power-sharing formula, while others question Tinubu’s leadership record so far. Salihu Moh. Lukman, former APC National Vice Chairman (North West), dismissed Ganduje’s remarks as undemocratic, asserting that every Nigerian has a right to contest.
Tinubu’s Strategy: A Southern Offensive
Tinubu’s lackluster performance in the South-East and South-South during the 2023 election—where he secured only 5.8% and 29.1% of the vote, respectively—has prompted a strategic shift. Sources reveal that the President is actively engaging with political leaders in these regions, offering development projects and political deals in exchange for support.
One insider disclosed that Tinubu’s team is negotiating with opposition governors, allowing them to retain their positions in return for backing his re-election bid. If successful, this move could secure crucial votes in states like Anambra, Enugu, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Delta. There is also speculation that some opposition figures may cross over to the APC to strengthen Tinubu’s foothold.
Northern Backlash: A Brewing Storm?
While Tinubu’s Southern outreach gains momentum, his Northern support base appears increasingly divided. The region, which delivered the bulk of his votes in 2023, is growing disillusioned with his economic policies, security challenges, and governance style. The removal of fuel subsidies and rising cost of living have fueled dissatisfaction, leading some Northern leaders to question whether they should back him again.
Hashimu Dungurawa, Kano State Chairman of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), warned that Northern voters might turn against Tinubu in 2027. He accused the administration of neglecting the region despite its overwhelming support in the last election. “The North-West alone gave Tinubu six million votes in 2023. What have we gained in return?” he asked.
A Test for Nigeria’s Democracy
As the political climate intensifies, analysts argue that the 2027 election will be a critical test for Nigeria’s democracy. Political commentator Prof. Kamilu Sani Fagge criticized Ganduje’s assertion that Northern aspirants should step aside, describing it as undemocratic. “Elections are meant to be competitive. It’s not for one party chairman to dictate who can or cannot run,” he said.
With Tinubu’s allies consolidating power and opposition voices growing louder, Nigeria is set for a high-stakes battle that could reshape its political landscape. Will the North remain loyal? Can Tinubu win over the South? Only time will tell.
