President Bola Tinubu’s firm grip on Lagos politics is being tested in ways many never anticipated. What started as an internal power play within the Lagos State House of Assembly has spiraled into a full-blown political crisis—one that pits Tinubu against his own loyalists and long-time allies.
The ousting of former Speaker Mudashiru Obasa and the rise of the first female Speaker, Mojisola Meranda, was expected to be a routine power shift. Instead, it has exposed deep cracks within Tinubu’s political empire. The battle, once confined to backroom negotiations, played out dramatically when Meranda was reduced to tears in the House chamber—an image that quickly became a symbol of a larger fight brewing in Lagos.
Meranda’s brief security withdrawal and Obasa’s reinforced police protection only fueled suspicions of external interference. Many now see the struggle not just as a fight for political positioning but as a larger battle for the soul of Lagos. Tinubu’s reported push to reinstall Obasa to maintain geopolitical balance in the state—ensuring Lagos West gets its share of power—has ironically backfired. Lawmakers from Lagos West have refused to reclaim the Speakership, throwing their support behind Meranda instead.
Now, Tinubu finds himself in a precarious position. Siding with Obasa is politically costly, especially as accusations swirl that he is backing an “outsider” over an indigenous Lagosian. With growing resentment from Lagos-for-Lagos activists and political associates emboldened by the rebellion, Tinubu faces a defining moment in his Lagos dynasty.
Adding to the pressure is the memory of his shocking defeat in Lagos during the 2023 presidential election. As 2027 looms, the current turmoil could weaken his influence even further—not just in Lagos but across Nigeria.
Tinubu, a master strategist, has always played the long game. But this time, the gameboard is shifting under his feet. Can he navigate this storm without losing his stronghold? Or is Lagos finally slipping out of his control?
