Oil marketers have warned Nigerians to prepare for a possible rise in petrol prices to about ₦1,500 per litre as tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global energy markets.
The warning was issued by the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, during a television interview where he analysed the impact of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran on global oil prices.
According to him, the availability of fuel products remains more important than price stability during periods of global supply disruptions.
He explained that the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery have become a critical source of supply for the country at a time when international energy markets are experiencing significant volatility.
Gillis-Harry noted that although fuel prices are rising, maintaining steady product availability would help Nigeria avoid the severe fuel shortages that previously crippled economic activities across the country.
He added that current market trends suggest that the retail price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could climb toward ₦1,500 per litre once logistics costs, transportation charges, and other supply expenses are added.
The warning followed a recent price adjustment by the Dangote refinery, which increased the ex-depot price of petrol to ₦1,175 per litre while diesel was raised to ₦1,620 per litre.
The latest adjustment represents the fourth revision in less than two weeks, reflecting the growing pressure from global oil market fluctuations.
Industry data also showed that the refinery’s petrol price rose sharply from the previous ₦995 per litre level, while diesel jumped from about ₦1,430 per litre.
Analysts say the increase in domestic fuel prices is closely tied to the surge in international crude oil benchmarks.
As of Monday afternoon, Brent Crude climbed to about $102.8 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose to around $101 per barrel, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions on global supply chains.
The conflict has disrupted shipping activities across strategic maritime routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.
Security threats and uncertainty surrounding the conflict have forced some vessels to alter their routes, increasing shipping costs and insurance premiums for crude oil and refined petroleum products.
Meanwhile, the Managing Director of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, David Bird, explained that although Nigeria introduced a crude-for-naira arrangement to help local refineries purchase crude oil in local currency, the pricing of crude still follows international market benchmarks.
As a result, the refinery continues to buy Nigerian crude at global market prices rather than discounted domestic rates.
The international crisis has also prompted reactions from world leaders. United States President Donald Trump recently announced plans to temporarily waive certain oil-related sanctions in an effort to stabilise global supply and reduce market pressure.
Despite the uncertainty, global oil markets reacted cautiously after comments from Trump suggesting that the conflict could end sooner than expected.
However, analysts warn that prolonged hostilities in the Middle East could further destabilise energy markets, potentially leading to higher fuel prices and wider economic consequences for oil-importing countries such as Nigeria.
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