Nigeria’s economic forecast just hit a major speed bump. The country’s premium crude—Bonny Light—took a sharp dive, dropping by 5.09% to $59.62 per barrel, sparking fresh concerns about the government’s ability to meet its ambitious ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget target.
The slump comes in the wake of escalating global tensions, particularly the ongoing tariff standoff triggered by recent hikes from the United States. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) announced plans to boost output by 411,000 barrels per day starting May 2025, flooding the market and pushing prices further down.
Nigeria, which based its 2025 budget on a projected oil price of $75 per barrel and daily output of 2.06 million barrels, is now faced with a troubling reality. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported actual production at just 1.67 million barrels per day in February, well below expectations.
“This is a serious problem,” said Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE). “We’ve only just completed the first quarter of the year, and already, the foundation of our budget is shaking. If this trend continues, our economy will be under serious pressure.”
According to Dr. Yusuf, the ripple effects could go beyond just revenue. “Lower oil prices mean lower foreign exchange earnings, and that puts massive pressure on the naira. A weaker exchange rate will trigger inflation, higher import costs, and overall economic instability.”
Silver Lining? Cheaper Petrol Might Be On The Way
While the crude crash spells trouble for government coffers, everyday Nigerians might see some relief at the pump. Sources in the downstream petroleum sector hint that a drop in petrol prices is likely in the coming days.
“This is what deregulation is about,” said Ehimen Joseph, Chairman of PETROAN Lagos chapter. “If global crude prices remain low, the impact will naturally cascade down the value chain, including pump prices.”
One industry insider who preferred to remain anonymous confirmed that some refineries had already stopped issuing fuel tickets, anticipating a new price structure. “There’s chatter about a petrol price review coming before Tuesday. Those who paid earlier might even get a discount,” the source revealed.
Depot prices have already started reflecting the global dip:
- Mainland, A.Y.M & Ever: Now at ₦918–₦919/litre, down from ₦920
- Prudent: ₦912, down from ₦913
- Eterna: ₦897, down from ₦900
- Soroman: ₦915, down from ₦916
Meanwhile, OPEC+ nations—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others—met virtually on April 3, reaffirming plans to ramp up production despite global price instability.
As the world watches oil prices fluctuate, Nigeria finds itself at a precarious crossroads—balancing the blow to its budget with the potential relief for fuel-hungry citizens.
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